Research Paper

The Future of Nuclear Arms Control and the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War

Nadezhda Arbatova, George Perkovich, and Paul van Hooft
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Cover image: President Joe Biden meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Mariinsky Palace, on February 20, 2023, during an unannounced trip to Kyiv, Ukraine. Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz. Published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 2.0 Generic (CC BY-ND 2.0 DEED) license.

American Ƶ of Arts and Sciences

Table of Contents

European Security after the Ukraine Conflict: Respice Finem

Three Faces of the Ukraine Conflict
Justice versus Peace or Cease-Fire versus Escalation?
Risks of Nuclear Escalation
Uncertain Future
Searching for New Approaches to Arms Control

No Losers: Making Arms Control Work

Disrepair and Resistance to Treatment
Triangular Competitions Create Unprecedented Challenges
Conceptualizing Pathways to Political and Nuclear Stability
Political Challenges
Getting Our Own Heads and Houses in Order
Secrecy Could Help
Demystify “Emerging Technology” and Work Around It
Some Next Steps Worth Considering

Deter, Compete, and Engage: Europe’s Responsibility within the Arms Control Regime after Ukraine, with or without the United States

Strategic Stability: Nuclear Dynamics and Geopolitical Competition
Global and European Trends
Specific Russian Trends
European Needs and Strategic Stability
European Support for Arms Control after Ukraine
On or Off the Sidelines